EDGE//NFL
DATA PROVENANCEProps, best lines and alerts come from the real 2026 props-board export. Every quote carries its own read time from that export, so ages are real; a quote whose source recorded none says so instead of borrowing the export time. The schedule is real too: matchups, kickoffs, stadiums, spreads and totals all come from nflverse. Every quote on this board is a season-long market, so no price settles in a single game. Whether a book is currently open or suspended still needs a status API, and injuries, weather, moneylines, game-level model probabilities and weekly stats are not available in this snapshot — they are shown as unavailable, never invented.

Season

2026

Supported markets

0

Positive-EV quotes

775

Best edge

+230.8%

Supported recommendations

0 of 10 · read fresh (under 6h) · calibration + 2024/2025 discrimination ok · season markets, not game-day bets

No supported fresh recommendations right now: every quote on this board is more than 6h old, or its market has not cleared calibration and both discrimination verdicts. An unavailable recommendation is shown honestly, never invented.

Model–market gaps — research only

0 of 10 · fresh quotes without discrimination evidence · NOT recommendations

No fresh model–market gaps in this snapshot either — every quote is more than 6h old.

Track record and limits

honest about what this is not

The projection model behind these markets is recalibrated against realized results, and every market shown passed an independent out-of-sample calibration check on the prior completed season and separates the players it quotes (discrimination) in both the 2024 evaluation and the 2025 holdout. A quote only appears as a recommendation when it carries a real read time that is still fresh, positive expected value, usable odds, and a market with that evidence. Quotes without it are listed separately as research only.

These are season-long contracts: they settle over the full season, not in any one weekly game, and they are not a guarantee of profit. Prices move, the model can be wrong, and some markets lose their skill when you compare similar players. Calibrated probabilities beat guessing; they do not promise winnings.

Week 1 kickoffs

real schedule · 16 games · status not inferred

  • FRI 00:35Z · 1 games

    • SF @ LAR

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 48.5 · Melbourne Cricket Ground

  • MON 00:20Z · 1 games

    • DAL @ NYG

      SPR +2.5 · TOT 48.5 · MetLife Stadium

  • SUN 17:00Z · 8 games

    • ATL @ PIT

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 42.5 · Acrisure Stadium

    • BAL @ IND

      SPR +3.5 · TOT 48.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium

    • BUF @ HOU

      SPR +1.5 · TOT 44.5 · Reliant Stadium

    • CHI @ CAR

      SPR +2.5 · TOT 47.5 · Bank of America Stadium

    • CLE @ JAX

      SPR -7.5 · TOT 40.5 · EverBank Stadium

    • NO @ DET

      SPR -7.0 · TOT 48.5 · Ford Field

    • NYJ @ TEN

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 38.5 · Nissan Stadium

    • TB @ CIN

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 51.5 · Paycor Stadium

  • SUN 20:25Z · 4 games

    • ARI @ LAC

      SPR -10.5 · TOT 46.5 · SoFi Stadium

    • GB @ MIN

      SPR -1.5 · TOT 45.5 · U.S. Bank Stadium

    • MIA @ LV

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 40.5 · Allegiant Stadium

    • WAS @ PHI

      SPR -4.5 · TOT 47.5 · Lincoln Financial Field

  • THU 00:20Z · 1 games

    • NE @ SEA

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 44.5 · Lumen Field

  • TUE 00:15Z · 1 games

    • DEN @ KC

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 42.5 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Full schedule by week →

Where to dig deeper

analyst views, all season-long

Latest alerts

40 open
  • line_moved2d ago

    Saquon Barkley: over Rushing yards (line 1249.5 @ Kalshi) -2.3% EV (line moved)

  • ev_cross2d ago

    Saquon Barkley: under Rushing yards (line 1249.5 @ Kalshi) +1.3% EV (ev cross)

  • line_moved2d ago

    Saquon Barkley: under Rushing yards (line 1249.5 @ Kalshi) +1.3% EV (line moved)

  • edge_cross2d ago

    Saquon Barkley: over Rushing yards (line 1499.5 @ Kalshi) +15.2% EV (edge cross)

  • line_moved2d ago

    Saquon Barkley: over Rushing yards (line 1499.5 @ Kalshi) +15.2% EV (line moved)

All alerts →