EDGE//NFL
DATA PROVENANCEProps, best lines and alerts come from the real 2026 props-board export. Every quote carries its own read time from that export, so ages are real; a quote whose source recorded none says so instead of borrowing the export time. The schedule is real too: matchups, kickoffs, stadiums, spreads and totals all come from nflverse. Every quote on this board is a season-long market, so no price settles in a single game. Whether a book is currently open or suspended still needs a status API, and injuries, weather, moneylines, game-level model probabilities and weekly stats are not available in this snapshot — they are shown as unavailable, never invented.

Season

2026

Supported markets

0

Positive-EV quotes

973

Best edge

+254.9%

Supported recommendations

0 of 10 · read fresh (under 6h) · calibration + 2024/2025 discrimination ok · season markets, not game-day bets

No supported fresh recommendations right now: every quote on this board is more than 6h old, or its market has not cleared calibration and both discrimination verdicts. An unavailable recommendation is shown honestly, never invented.

Trending props

20 producer-ranked markets · activity, not a recommendation

Model–market gaps — research only

10 of 10 · fresh quotes without discrimination evidence · NOT recommendations
  • QBCARPass Yds OVER 3999.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +1329model 24.8% · market 7.0%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (24.8%) sits above the market's fair over price (7.0%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • QBLVPass Yds OVER 2999.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +852model 33.4% · market 10.5%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (33.4%) sits above the market's fair over price (10.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • RBHOURush Yds OVER 749.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +1438model 20.1% · market 6.5%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (20.1%) sits above the market's fair over price (6.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • QBWASPass Yds OVER 4499.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +1438model 19.8% · market 6.5%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (19.8%) sits above the market's fair over price (6.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • RBGBRush Yds OVER 999.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +567model 43.4% · market 15.0%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (43.4%) sits above the market's fair over price (15.0%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • QBPHIPass Yds OVER 4499.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +1438model 18.7% · market 6.5%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (18.7%) sits above the market's fair over price (6.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • WRNYJRec Yds UNDER 299.5not a recommendation
    Polymarket +317model 67.6% · market 24.0%read under 6h ago51m ago

    Why: the model's under probability (67.6%) sits above the market's fair under price (24.0%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • RBGBRush Yds OVER 749.5not a recommendation
    Kalshi +326model 64.5% · market 23.5%read under 6h ago52m ago

    Why: the model's over probability (64.5%) sits above the market's fair over price (23.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • WRTBRec TD UNDER 0.5not a recommendation
    Polymarket +852model 26.4% · market 10.5%read under 6h ago51m ago

    Why: the model's under probability (26.4%) sits above the market's fair under price (10.5%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

  • QBJAXPass Yds UNDER 3274.5not a recommendation
    Polymarket +376model 52.4% · market 21.0%read under 6h ago51m ago

    Why: the model's under probability (52.4%) sits above the market's fair under price (21.0%), a season market with no discrimination evidence — research only, not a recommendation.

Track record and limits

honest about what this is not

The projection model behind these markets is recalibrated against realized results, and every market shown passed an independent out-of-sample calibration check on the prior completed season and separates the players it quotes (discrimination) in both the 2024 evaluation and the 2025 holdout. A quote only appears as a recommendation when it carries a real read time that is still fresh, positive expected value, usable odds, and a market with that evidence. Quotes without it are listed separately as research only.

These are season-long contracts: they settle over the full season, not in any one weekly game, and they are not a guarantee of profit. Prices move, the model can be wrong, and some markets lose their skill when you compare similar players. Calibrated probabilities beat guessing; they do not promise winnings.

Week 1 kickoffs

real schedule · 16 games · status not inferred

  • FRI 00:35Z · 1 games

    • SF @ LAR

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 48.5 · Melbourne Cricket Ground

  • MON 00:20Z · 1 games

    • DAL @ NYG

      SPR +2.5 · TOT 48.5 · MetLife Stadium

  • SUN 17:00Z · 8 games

    • ATL @ PIT

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 42.5 · Acrisure Stadium

    • BAL @ IND

      SPR +3.5 · TOT 48.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium

    • BUF @ HOU

      SPR +1.5 · TOT 44.5 · Reliant Stadium

    • CHI @ CAR

      SPR +2.5 · TOT 47.5 · Bank of America Stadium

    • CLE @ JAX

      SPR -7.5 · TOT 40.5 · EverBank Stadium

    • NO @ DET

      SPR -7.0 · TOT 48.5 · Ford Field

    • NYJ @ TEN

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 38.5 · Nissan Stadium

    • TB @ CIN

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 51.5 · Paycor Stadium

  • SUN 20:25Z · 4 games

    • ARI @ LAC

      SPR -10.5 · TOT 46.5 · SoFi Stadium

    • GB @ MIN

      SPR -1.5 · TOT 45.5 · U.S. Bank Stadium

    • MIA @ LV

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 40.5 · Allegiant Stadium

    • WAS @ PHI

      SPR -4.5 · TOT 47.5 · Lincoln Financial Field

  • THU 00:20Z · 1 games

    • NE @ SEA

      SPR -3.5 · TOT 44.5 · Lumen Field

  • TUE 00:15Z · 1 games

    • DEN @ KC

      SPR -3.0 · TOT 42.5 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Full schedule by week →

Where to dig deeper

analyst views, all season-long

Latest alerts

40 open
  • line_moved38d ago

    Brock Purdy: under Passing touchdowns (line 24.5 @ Kalshi) +50.6% EV (line moved)

  • edge_cross38d ago

    Geno Smith: over Passing touchdowns (line 19.5 @ Kalshi) +79.5% EV (edge cross)

  • line_moved38d ago

    Geno Smith: over Passing touchdowns (line 19.5 @ Kalshi) +79.5% EV (line moved)

  • line_moved38d ago

    Jalen Hurts: over Passing yards (line 2999.5 @ Kalshi) -14.8% EV (line moved)

  • ev_cross38d ago

    Jalen Hurts: under Passing yards (line 2999.5 @ Kalshi) +21.7% EV (ev cross)

All alerts →