EDGE//NFL
DATA PROVENANCEProps, best lines and alerts come from the real 2026 props-board export. Every quote carries its own read time from that export, so ages are real; a quote whose source recorded none says so instead of borrowing the export time. The schedule is real too: matchups, kickoffs, stadiums, spreads and totals all come from nflverse. Every quote on this board is a season-long market, so no price settles in a single game. Whether a book is currently open or suspended still needs a status API, and injuries, weather, moneylines, game-level model probabilities and weekly stats are not available in this snapshot — they are shown as unavailable, never invented.

Priced sample

1950

Mean |projection − market|

8.18pts

Same-side agreement

86.6%

Mean edge

-0.0%

Projection above market

970

Accuracy scoring OUTCOME API REQUIRED

requires settled outcomes — nothing here is computed from the snapshot

Brier score

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — needs settled prop results. The snapshot has no realised outcomes.

Log loss

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — needs settled prop results. Market prices are not outcomes.

Calibration bins (predicted vs realised)

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — realised hit rates per probability bin need a results history endpoint.

Scored sample size

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — no props in this snapshot have been settled.

Scored date range

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — a settled-results window starts once outcomes are stored.

Accuracy by market

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — per-market hit rate needs settled results. The per-market table below shows disagreement only.

Model versionedge-nfl-props v0 (snapshot projections)
Snapshot season2026
Outcome feednot connected

Nothing on this page measures how often the projection was right. Everything computed here is projection-vs-market disagreement on the current snapshot and is labelled as such.

Projection vs market by probability bucket

10 buckets · disagreement, not accuracy

Edge distribution

17 buckets

Probability buckets

mean projection vs mean de-vigged market price, with sample size
Projection versus de-vigged market price per probability bucket, with sample size.
BucketProjectionMarketDisagreementSample
0-10%6.1%12.9%-6.8%121
10-20%15.3%19.1%-3.8%185
20-30%24.5%27.3%-2.8%227
30-40%35.0%39.2%-4.2%224
40-50%44.9%45.7%-0.8%215
50-60%55.0%54.2%+0.8%221
60-70%65.0%60.8%+4.2%224
70-80%75.3%72.6%+2.7%221
80-90%84.6%80.8%+3.8%190
90-100%93.8%87.1%+6.7%122

Per-market disagreement

7 markets
Snapshot disagreement between projection and market pricing per market.
MarketRowsMean edgeMean EVSignal
Rec Yds508-0.0%-5.7%aligned
Rec TD412-0.0%+1.5%aligned
Rush Yds307+0.0%+5.6%aligned
Pass Yds257-0.1%+14.6%aligned
Pass TD232+0.0%+2.6%aligned
Receptions230+0.0%-5.8%aligned
Fantasy Pts40.0%-4.5%aligned

Notes

All figures compare the projection against de-vigged market pricing across the 1950 priced rows in the current snapshot. They describe disagreement with the market, not correctness.