EDGE//NFL
DATA PROVENANCEProps, best lines and alerts come from the real 2026 props-board export. Every quote carries its own read time from that export, so ages are real; a quote whose source recorded none says so instead of borrowing the export time. The schedule is real too: matchups, kickoffs, stadiums, spreads and totals all come from nflverse. Every quote on this board is a season-long market, so no price settles in a single game. Whether a book is currently open or suspended still needs a status API, and injuries, weather, moneylines, game-level model probabilities and weekly stats are not available in this snapshot — they are shown as unavailable, never invented.

Priced sample

1554

Mean |projection − market|

9.16pts

Same-side agreement

82.9%

Mean edge

-0.0%

Projection above market

773

Accuracy scoring OUTCOME API REQUIRED

requires settled outcomes — nothing here is computed from the snapshot

Brier score

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — needs settled prop results. The snapshot has no realised outcomes.

Log loss

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — needs settled prop results. Market prices are not outcomes.

Calibration bins (predicted vs realised)

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — realised hit rates per probability bin need a results history endpoint.

Scored sample size

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — no props in this snapshot have been settled.

Scored date range

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — a settled-results window starts once outcomes are stored.

Accuracy by market

unavailable

OUTCOME API REQUIRED — per-market hit rate needs settled results. The per-market table below shows disagreement only.

Model versionedge-nfl-props v0 (snapshot projections)
Snapshot season2026
Outcome feednot connected

Nothing on this page measures how often the projection was right. Everything computed here is projection-vs-market disagreement on the current snapshot and is labelled as such.

Projection vs market by probability bucket

10 buckets · disagreement, not accuracy

Edge distribution

17 buckets

Probability buckets

mean projection vs mean de-vigged market price, with sample size
Projection versus de-vigged market price per probability bucket, with sample size.
BucketProjectionMarketDisagreementSample
0-10%6.1%13.5%-7.4%82
10-20%15.5%21.0%-5.5%135
20-30%24.7%27.5%-2.8%196
30-40%35.0%38.5%-3.5%185
40-50%44.8%47.2%-2.4%177
50-60%55.0%52.8%+2.2%180
60-70%64.9%61.5%+3.4%186
70-80%75.1%72.2%+2.9%191
80-90%84.3%79.1%+5.2%139
90-100%93.9%86.4%+7.5%83

Per-market disagreement

7 markets
Snapshot disagreement between projection and market pricing per market.
MarketRowsMean edgeMean EVSignal
Rec Yds458-0.0%-4.2%aligned
Rec TD310-0.0%+4.9%aligned
Rush Yds285+0.0%+3.8%aligned
Receptions210-0.0%-0.8%aligned
Pass Yds209-0.1%+9.5%aligned
Pass TD78+0.0%+1.0%aligned
Fantasy Pts40.0%-4.5%aligned

Notes

All figures compare the projection against de-vigged market pricing across the 1554 priced rows in the current snapshot. They describe disagreement with the market, not correctness.